Software stocks mein bhagdad: Kya ye 2000 wala dotcom bubble burst hai ya sirf trailer? Agar aapne IT ya software stocks mein paisa lagaya hai, toh pichla hafta aapke liye thoda stressful raha hoga. Market mein achanak se ek ajeeb si bechaini dikh rahi hai. Investors ab ye sawal pooch rahe hain ki kya hum un software companies ko zaroorat se zyada bhav de rahe hain jinhe AI aane wale time mein replace kar sakta hai? Deutsche Bank ke analysts ne toh purani yaadein taza kar di hain. Unka kehna hai ki ye bilkul waisa hi feel ho raha hai jaisa saal 2000 mein dotcom bubble burst hone ke time par hua tha.
Jab history khud ko repeat karti hai
Deutsche Bank ke Henry Allen ne clients ko bataya ki S&P 500 ka software component apne October ke peak se lagbhag 30% gir chuka hai. Normal halat mein itni badi girawat poore market ko duba deti, lekin abhi tak aisa hua nahi hai. Kyun? Asal mein, investors ne tech se paisa nikaal kar Energy, Materials aur Consumer Staples jaise sectors mein daalna shuru kar diya hai. Isse kehte hain 'Sector Rotation'. Allen ka kehna hai ki March 2000 mein bhi bilkul yahi pattern dikha tha. Tech stocks gir rahe the, lekin healthcare aur utilities jaise sectors market ko sambhale hue the. Par darr ki baat ye hai ki 2000 mein ye 'sambhalna' zyada din nahi chala tha, aur saal ke khatam hote-hote market 10% se zyada neeche gir gaya tha.
AI ab sirf hype nahi, khatra bhi hai
Is hafte ki bhagdad ke peeche ek bada haath Anthropic ka bhi hai. Unhone apne 'Claude Cowork' agent ke liye naye plug-ins launch kiye hain jo data analysis, legal aur marketing jaise kaam chutkiyon mein kar sakte hain. Ab sochiye, agar ek AI bot ye saare kaam in-house kar lega, toh koi company mehnge software subscriptions (SaaS) par paisa kyun kharch karegi? Yahi woh darr hai jo investors ko software stocks bechne par majboor kar raha hai. Amazon ne bhi AI par 200 billion dollars kharch karne ki baat kahi hai, jisse market thoda thanda pad gaya hai.
Kya ye sach mein 2000 wala crash hai?
Har koi itna pessimistic nahi hai. Goldman Sachs ke analysts ka manna hai ki aaj ki situation 1999 se kaafi alag hai.
- Real Profits: 1999 mein aisi companies ke valuation aasman chhu rahe the jinka koi revenue tak nahi tha. Aaj ki 'Magnificent 7' companies (jaise Microsoft, Google, Nvidia) kash-m-kash mein nahi hain; woh asli paisa kama rahi hain aur dividends bhi de rahi hain.
- Cash Flow: Aaj ki tech giants ke paas itna cash hai ki woh bade se bade jhatke jhel sakti hain.
JPMorgan ke CEO Jamie Dimon ne bhi kaha hai ki AI ko poori tarah bubble kehna galat hoga. Haan, kuch cheezein overvalued ho sakti hain, lekin long term mein AI ka payoff bada hone wala hai.
Ground Reality: Iska asli matlab kya hai?
Dekha jaye toh market ab 'Wait and Watch' mode mein hai. Software companies ke liye ye ek 'Identity Crisis' ka time hai. Agar woh khud ko AI ke hisaab se nahi dhal payengi, toh unka haal wahi hoga jo dotcom era ki un companies ka hua tha jo sirf naam ki tech companies thin. Middle-class investor ke liye seekh saaf hai: Sirf 'Tech' ke naam par aankh band karke paisa lagane ka zamana gaya. Ab ye dekhna zaroori hai ki kaunsi company AI ko use kar rahi hai aur kaunsi AI se darr rahi hai. Market crash hoga ya nahi, ye toh waqt batayega, par portfolio mein diversification ab option nahi, zaroorat ban gayi hai. Aage kya hota hai, us par nazar rakhni padegi. Aapko kya lagta hai, kya ye software stocks ke liye anth ki shuruat hai?